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China effect on world banks and oil

BLOOD in the Streets

ANYONE who owns assests has got to be interested in the below pushed aside pieces of information.

BLOOD in the Streets – just what could trigger the beginning of C wave down for the markets and oil while gold blasts higher in its 3rd wave up.
As many know EW is a TA tool I have used a lot the last 10 years and I have stated many reasons why. This week we MAY be seeing the factor that triggers the last leg down, the really really bloody one.
Many ask exactly what could trigger what the EW pattern is suggesting (namely B wave up in the markets coming to end soon and a C wave that will at least test the recent lows and has HUGE potional to see S@P 400, the same for oil by the way, we are at or nearing the end of B wave up, BUT gold is in a 3rd wave up), well read these 3 pieces as they could very well be talking of the trigger. China does hold the US banking system and US$ in the palm of thier hand, the problem right now is dumping US$ would be have major effects on China also.

Read these 3 pieces and connect the dots.

WRAPUP 1-US commodities rattled by China derivatives stance.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idAFPEK1183220090831?rpc=44

CHINA AND THE BUZZ OF A PENDING BANK DEFAULT
http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2009/09/china-and-buzz-of-pending-bank-default_03.html

Silver and China

THUNDER ROAD AGAIN
China pushes silver and gold investment to the masses
A report suggests that the Chinese government is pushing the general public into buying gold and silver bullion, which could have a dramatic effect on the markets.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Thursday , 03 Sep 2009

LONDON -

We are indebted again to Paul Mylchreest’s Thunder Road Report for news that will bring big smiles to gold and silver investors everywhere. Apparently China is pushing the idea of buying gold and silver for investment purposes to the general population in the way that Western television sells soap powder. If 1.3 billion Chinese citizens start buying gold and silver, even in tiny quantities, imagine what that will do to the market!

The report notes that China’s Central Television, the main state-owned television company, has run a news programme letting the public know how easy it is to buy precious metals as an investment. On silver investment the announcer is quoted as saying ” China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive than silver in 2007, but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in.”

What appears to have happened in China is a total relaxation of strictures on holding precious metals by the individual with the government pushing gold and silver as an investment option, seemingly at every opportunity. This is a far cry from the situation only a few years ago where the distribution of gold and silver was strictly controlled. Now, the Thunder Road Report notes that every bank will sell gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes to individuals and gold related investments are said to be soaring in popularity.

Around a year ago, Leyshon Resources managing director, Paul Atherley, in an investor presentation in London - and no doubt delivered elsewhere in the world too - commented that some employees at the company’s gold mining project in northern China would, on pay day, go to the local bank and buy a small gold bar as an investment and wealth protector. To an extent we put this down at the time to mining company hype - but this seems to be exactly the same phenomenon noted by Thunder Road. The Chinese are being converted from being the lowest per capita gold consumers in the world to a nation of small precious metals investors. Now, by next year, Chinese consumption of gold is likely to exceed that of India, which has been for years the world’s biggest gold market. And one suspects that the potential for gold purchasing by individuals is only in its earliest stages. As more and more Chinese move into the cities and individual wealth grows, this trend is only likely to accelerate.

Paul ends the piece on Chinese gold and silver potential with the following comment: “Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold craze…and it’s working. The Chinese public now has gold trading platforms on steroids…. …Also, for the first time in history, Chinese investors can even trade gold abroad (in London) with the swipe of a ‘Lucky Gold’ card. I can’t even get Bank of America to open a foreign currency account.”

This may be an overstatement of the case from a precious metals bull - or it may not! Certainly if China is indeed pushing the public to buy gold then there may well be a hidden agenda here. It’s unlikely they are doing it and will suddenly pull the rug out from under millions of investors. A cynic (or a raging gold bull) would suggest that this will precede a move to switch a good proportion of the country’s reserves into gold which would have a huge effect on the global gold price and could prove disastrous for the dollar. Maybe it’s not in China’s interests to drive the dollar down too much until it has managed to divest itself of the huge dollar overhang (see the article on Chinese Sovereign Wealth Funds we published yesterday - Chinese sovereign wealth fund dumping dollars for strategic investments like gold ). The country may well already be, of course, surreptitiously building its gold reserves without reporting the build-up.
If the Chinese are indeed beginning to buy gold and silver as the quoted report suggests then this has to be a strong signal that prices are going to rise, and perhaps rise dramatically, in the relatively near future. We await comment from other China watchers for confirmation of the gold and silver buying spree, but with global gold production at best flat and probably in decline, even a small increase in Chinese buying could have a substantial impact on gold and silver prices.

 

 

 

Elliott Wave predicting news

The debate regards what moves the markets, is it technical analysis, fundamentals, news or is it just random, has gone on for years and will do so for many more. Well Elliott Wave offers some interesting input. I made this response to a poster on a investment board who was stating his views.

Some truth for sure regards your post regards TA not predicting news, but for that matter FA does not predict news either.

However read the report from below from this well known expert on EW and consider his views regards where one is in the wave pattern gives an idea of HOW the market will react to news. How often have we heard the saying “The markets are climbing a wall of worry”, this is the case in strong bull markets.

How often have you SEEN (in hind sight) that the markets top exactly when fundamentals look the best, and good news is coming daily yet the market goes down, AND markets bottom when things look down right ugly and its total fear in the streets. Is it any wonder FA is a good counter indicator, when everyone is buying due to GREAT fundamentals and good news, that is the time to sell.

How often have you heard the justifaction of the above when people say the markets lead the ecomony by 6 months, I know you have heard that, have you ever tried to analize that concept?

Now go and read carefully this link and you will see why I figure EW has something to offer that no other TA of fundamental tool offers.

Elliott Wave Analysis Theory

By the way take careful note of the end, notice the labels on the chart, he was talking about a pending very long term top in the markets, see the chart at the end. Now we are talking a EXTREMELY long term bull market that EW shows coming to a end. The recent market action confirmed that road map. So I disagree, EW did in fact predict the top that occured in 2007, and more importantly it was pointing to a MAJOR top, as in similiar to 1929.

His words
“In issue no. 553, page 7, we present a chart that shows the largest degree wave identified is the Grand Supercycle. For this degree we use Brownish-red large Roman Numerals with brackets. Wave {1} peaked in 1718. Wave {II} down completed in 1784. Wave {III} up is the major top what we expect has just completed in February 2007, or alternately, will complete soon. The next largest degree of trend wave is the Supercycle wave, denoted by large purple Roman Numerals with parentheses around them.”

By the way EWI (Elliot Wave International, another well known group using EW) in 2005 were talking about a concept called a coming Great Depression, a “SELL ALL ASSESTS”.  They stated all assests would go up (you know oil, gold, commidities, markets, housing, bonds EVERYTHING, something that is not normal) then all assests would go down in a great GLOBAL selloff). And get this: they stated clearly HOUSING would lead the Great Assest selloff and would mark the beginnng of the second Great Depression.

And all I have heard on these boards for the last 2 years is “NO ONE COULD SEE THIS COMING”. Well all I can say to that is Bullshit.

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